A hundred urban areas are poised to become truly great: Which ones will emerge as the next "supercities"?

Many urban areas offer a high quality of life. They earn high marks when measured by the usual economic and social indicators. Yet, some cities rise above the others, achieving distinction on a higher plane. They are world-class cities that enjoy a special image in the eyes of billions of people. Their assets and achievements are known and recognized by leaders in government, science, the arts, and business. They attract people from around the world and make visitors feel comfortable by showing respect for their varied languages, customs, and cultures.

These unique "supercities" attract and hold wealth. They are recognized by the global business community as good locations for their headquarters offices, research and development laboratories, and other strategic investments. There are going to be many new supercities in the twenty-first century.

Defining the Supercity

A supercity is an urban area with three characteristics:

• It has a population of more than 1 million people.
• It has a sustainable capability for meeting the physical and social needs of its residents (food, shelter, safety, health, transportation, and education).
• It has a healthy and dynamic economic environment that creates, attracts, and nurtures economic investments that produce adequate jobs and public revenues.

By this definition, not all large cities are supercities, but all large cities can strive to achieve that status.

Today's large cities are continuing to grow rapidly throughout the world. The United Nations estimates that over 500 urban areas will have a population of more than a million people by 2015, compared with 328 such cities in 1996. Over the same period, the number of cities with a population of more than 5 million is projected to increase from 16 to 26.

There may be as many as 100 emerging supercities around the world. The United States has such fast-developing centers as Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Portland, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Orlando, New Orleans, and many others.

Elsewhere, the competition includes such cities as Madrid, Melbourne, São Paulo, Toronto, Guadalajara, Lyons, Stuttgart, Shanghai, and scores of others. These cities want many of the same things other cities want, and they are willing to work very hard to achieve them.

Building Infrastructure

Large cities as a group need enormous increases in urban infrastructure and services to meet the demands generated by the rapid growth and rising expectations of residents. The sheer scale of these new infrastructure requirements creates imposing challenges to planning, financing, and development.

All of the competitors have one thing in common: Cities of the future must be built project-by-project. There is no quick and easy route to success.

It was this building-block approach that raised many world-renowned cities to their present status. At various intervals they installed transit systems, expanded water-treatment plants, built convention centers, and added other infrastructure components.

It is difficult to rank these elements in importance or to say which ones, if any, are not needed. However, in combination, these components produce success. Here are some examples of vital elements for supercities:

1. Water. A city with great prospects for the future can have its hope shattered by a water shortage. It is absolutely essential to have a more-than-adequate supply.
2. International airport. There must be a fully equipped international airport offering flights to major global cities. There must be space adjacent to the airport for growth of an "airport city."
3. Hinterland connections. There must be transport routes that effectively link the city to its hinterland. Circumferential highways are the preferred system.
4. Domed stadium. In order to attract major world events there must be an enclosed stadium offering comfortable seating in any weather.
5. Technology center. There must be a center of excellence in several fields of technology. This technology hub must bring together top scientists from academic, government, and private organizations.
6. Communications center. The city must be wired to accommodate the mushrooming global flow of voice and data communications.
7. Public transportation. There must be an efficient rapid-transit system to serve all elements of the population. Increasing traffic congestion is the bane of every city!
8. Waste disposal. It is no longer acceptable to dispose of urban wastes via landfills. Cities must install sophisticated new resource-recovery systems.
9. Green infrastructure. Whatever plans and projects are undertaken, cities must provide for a substantial amount of permanent open space, including such elements as parks, golf courses, riding academies, and forests.
10. New political mechanisms. Many of the items on this agenda are big projects that cross many jurisdictional lines. In many cases, a new political arrangement is needed.

Works in Progress

Around the world today we find competing cities undertaking impressive programs to enhance their infrastructure systems and take a leadership role for the early twenty-first century.

Los Angeles is developing a 25-year water plan. New Orleans is building a new $500 million port. Kuala Lumpur is assembling a new, multibillion-dollar government center. Portland, Oregon, is adding green infrastructure. In Beijing there is a great new rail station, and Buenos Aires is planning a bridge to Uruguay. Madrid is investing billions in new infrastructure projects.

Assembling a new supercity is a formidable task anywhere. It is even more difficult in metropolitan areas that include diverse jurisdictions. Some cross national boundaries. Creative and heroic thinking is needed. Singapore is locating new elements in nearby Malaysia and across the straits in Indonesia. Hong Kong's new metropolitan area covers the entire Pearl River delta and involves many new relationships.

Other cities are working to integrate their hinterlands in a more-productive fashion. Atlanta is boldly seeking to build an outer-loop beltway covering more than 200 miles (360 km) and costing more than $3 billion. Moscow, which already has two concentric loop arteries, is now proposing a third loop. Istanbul is looking at yet another Bosporus crossing to improve traffic between Europe and Asia.

Nowhere is the competition keener than in the race to build great new airport cities to gain global transport advantages. Multibillion-dollar projects are appearing all over the world. Several world-class airport facilities have been constructed in recent years in Munich (1992), Osaka/Kansai (1994), Denver (1995), and Hong Kong (1998).

Meanwhile, other cities are moving ahead with intermodal air, rail, and highway links to improve their competitive advantage. Inside the Paris Charles de Gaulle airport terminal complex there is a new billion-dollar link to the French high-speed rail system. At Lyons, the Satolas airport also has added a link to the TGV high-speed rail line. A new rail link is planned at New York La Guardia.

Other cities are pushing innovative programs to fund the many expensive infrastructure elements they need. Mexico is privatizing some 25 key airports. Manila is moving ahead with BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) projects for major highways. Under a BOT plan, a private investor builds a facility and operates it as a private venture for a specified time and then hands it over to the contracting government entity. This has become a popular form of privatization in a number of countries: Bangladesh is planning to build a new container port via a BOT plan, and Taiwan is floating a new issue for high-speed rail.

A common denominator among supercities is their desire to attract great global events that bring both revenue and recognition. These require great arenas, convention centers, and hotel complexes. Barcelona and Atlanta invested several billion dollars in infrastructure improvements to accommodate recent Olympic games.

Today, Sydney is pushing construction for the year 2000 Olympics, and Athens is planning a new rapid-transit system and a new international airport for the year 2004 games.

The United Kingdom is investing more than $1 billion in facilities for celebrating the turn of the century and the new millennium. Included is the world's largest dome, which will be located near Greenwich.

The Challenge to Leaders

These are just a few of the building blocks being put in place by cities seeking to enjoy world-class status in the years ahead. All are expensive. Some involve political risk and face strong opposition. They are projects that pose enormous challenges for any city. And the test of a city's leadership includes not only the key political officials, but the planning staff, private developers, financial institutions, and major corporate citizens.

Moreover, every future project must be launched by leaders who are already very busy with current problems. Those who are too busy to pause and think ahead will be the losers. The winners, like successful generals in the heat of battle, will be those who can conceive of and implement effective development strategies.

About the Author

McKinley Conway is an aeronautical engineer and author of a dozen books on economic development and technology. He founded the International Development Research Council and the World Development Federation, and has chaired Global Super Projects Conferences throughout the world. His address is Conway Data, 35 Technology Parkway, Suite 150, Norcross, Georgia 30092. Telephone 1-770-446-6996; Web site http://www.conway.com/.

This article is adapted from The Super Cities of Century 21, a background paper for participants in the 1999 Global Super Projects Conference in Madrid in May 1999. The 2000 Global Super Projects Conference is slated for Atlanta, Georgia, May 21-24.

10 Future Supercities

Predicting the growth of cities is an inexact science. Even if we limit the range of the forecast to two or three decades, there are few sure things and many long shots. But the following 10 cities are poised to attain super status:

1. Bangalore, India. It is highly probable that several cities in India and China, the most-populous nations, will become supercities. Bangalore, with its mushrooming computer software industry, looks like a rapid riser.
2. Wuhan, China. Wuhan may be a good bet because of its strategic central location, high-tech industries, and dozens of colleges and technical institutes.
3. Istanbul, Turkey. Some older cities may outdistance other long-established urban areas for special reasons. Istanbul could grow very rapidly if it becomes the western terminus for the new Silk Road, extending across Asia and central China to Shanghai.
4. Shanghai, China. In addition to anchoring the Silk Road in the east, Shanghai is undergoing a massive rebuilding of its infrastructure and developing a vast new commercial center called the Pudong New Area.
5. Bangkok, Thailand. Bangkok may grow more rapidly than its competitors in Southeast Asia because Thailand's economy offers a well-diversified mix of manufacturing, tourism, agriculture, and resource recovery.
6. Denver, Colorado. Some cities will spring ahead because of visionary infrastructure development. Denver's supercity potential is enhanced by its new world-class airport.
7. Atlanta, Georgia. Along with its domed stadium and other construction for the 1996 Summer Olympics, Atlanta may move forward with its proposed 200-mile outer perimeter freeway. This project provides a rare opportunity to create a world model of infrastructure development and greenway conservation.
8. Cancun-Tulum, Mexico. Super metros could emerge around today's "beach cities," driven by tourism development in tropical climates. The Cancun-Tulum strip in Mexico's state of Quintana Roo could take advantage of the desire of many high-tech workers to live in a resort area.
9. Madrid, Spain. Madrid's political leaders have invested billions to improve the city's infrastructure, including airport expansion, which could help to spur the growth of tourism throughout Spain.
10. Vancouver, British Columbia. Vancouver, with its excellent port facilities on the Pacific Ocean, is poised to become a leader in global trade. It is also receiving many energetic (and wealthy) immigrants from Hong Kong.

Source: World Development Federation.

The World Development Federation

The World Development Federation (WDF) is an international federation of individuals and organizations involved in large-scale development projects. Its goal is to improve global quality of life through the implementation of "super projects" that enhance the environment, create global linkages, and contribute to effective economic development.

The Federation defines super projects as global megaprojects involving a capital investment of $1 billion or more, or those that reflect innovative solutions or technological breakthroughs having worldwide importance. Super projects can include the world's major infrastructure and facility ventures. Often, they have a significant economic impact within countries and regions. Many link remote areas of the world, create cooperation between and among regions, and produce profound effects on global economies.

The WDF has identified more than 1,600 global super projects. The impact of these massive ventures is often vast and controversial. Super projects include:

• Transportation: bridges, tunnels, highways, high-speed rail lines.
• Energy and water: dams, power plants, desalination plants.
• Urban development: waterfront and offshore developments; high-rise, underground, and mixed-use buildings; and new towns.
• Environmental: reclamation, enhancement.
• Resort and tourism development: global events and resort facilities.
• Communications: satellite, fiber-optic, and other systems.

Source: World Development Federation.